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That is a good question, and I think that there are a few answers. Distance is not the only thing to consider. For example, I myself perfer a lower boring trajectory. Now I actually had my swing analyzed on a launch monitor (more in a second) and I would have better distance with a 10*, but I went with a 9*. The reason is that I like to be able to look up as see the ball virtually at eye level, and also I don't like shots to be affected by the wind (personal preference).
About the launch monitor: there is an optimal launch angle (not club loft) to hit the ball the maximum distance. Obviously; it's simple physics. But that angle depends on the person (spin rate, etc). I think it is somewhere around 12.5 degrees for an average person. But it is virtually impossible to determine your launch angle without a monitor. In summary: to determine the optimal loft for your particular swing, you need to be fitted using a launch monitor.
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