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WARNING: Thread may contain "spoilers" (i.e., revelation of plot details).
Here are the “big” Oscar nominations (awards to be given on Sunday, March 5).
Your opinions, predictions?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Junebug)
Catherine Keener (Capote)
Frances McDormand (North Country)
Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener)
Michelle Williams (Brokeback Mountain)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney (Syriana)
Matt Dillon (Crash)
Paul Giamatti (Cinderella Man)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain)
William Hurt (A History of Violence)

ACTRESS
Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)
Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)
Keira Knightley (Pride & Prejudice)
Charlize Theron (North Country)
Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line)

ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote)
Terrence Howard (Hustle & Flow)
Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)
Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line)
David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck)

DIRECTOR
George Clooney (Good Night and Good Luck)
Paul Haggis (Crash)
Ang Lee (Brokeback Mountain)
Bennett Miller (Capote)
Stephen Spielberg (Munich)

PICTURE
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night and Good Luck
Munich

Except for Hoffman's portrayal as Capote...I think Hollywood will go ga-ga over the Cowboy Love Story. They won't be able to help themselves. Where's Nemo when you need him?

Always hard to predict what the Academy will do. I've heard it speculated that because Brokeback Mountain has already picked up so many awards, a backlash might set in among Academy voters, clearing the way for another film. Last year, The Aviator led the pack with 11 nominations, but it was Million Dollar Baby that won the most big awards (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor). So it's hard to say.

Tonight I watched Crash, so I've now seen 4 of the 5 nominees for Best Picture (haven't seen Capote yet; will try to). My take on the ones I've seen:

Brokeback Mountain: Had heard so much positive hype about it that I was expecting a great movie, so I was disappointed when it was "only" very good. (That's happened to me before with highly touted movies.) Yes, it's about two gay cowboys, but IMO it's ultimately about the consequences of not being OK with yourself and not following your heart. In that sense, it's a universal theme. Definitely worthy seeing if you don't have issues with the content (and are old enough to get in).

Crash: Racial tensions in the lives of several LA residents. Wonderful ensemble acting, but the dreariest, grimmest movie I've seen in a long time. I must be missing something. Stylish directing, though; I'll give it that.

Good Night, and Good Luck: Enjoyable to see a black-and-white movie. It's a nice medium; Clooney did a good job of directing. Excellent acting by David Strathairn as Edward R. Murrow. And nice decision not to have an actor play Joe McCarthy, but instead to show the real guy as the movie's characters watched him (and as America watched him) on TV. I know about the dark days of the McCarthy witch-hunt era, but I wonder if the movie did a good enough job of conveying the scariness of "Tail-Gunner Joe" to audiences who might not know as much (e.g., younger viewers; no offense, YG'ers). McCarthy terrorized America until someone, Murrow, had the guts to take him on.

Munich: My vote for Best Picture (I reserve the right to change my mind after I see Capote). "Inspired by real events," it's about a 5-man Israeli hit squad dispatched to kill 11 people involved in the murder of 11 Israelis at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich. It's part thriller, part film noir, and ultimately a great character study of the effect of violence on those who perpetrate it. Definitely not for kids; there are a couple of disturbing scenes that were not (IMO) gratuitous, but were simply necessary to represent the world inhabited by the characters.

Whatever your feelings about the subject matter Brokeback Mountain was a good movie. I wouldn't be surprise if it won awards for best director, best cinematography, or best actor or supporting actor.

Just a few reactions to JimSomebody's eloquent assessment of this year's nominees:

Brokeback Mountain: Possibly the most aptly named film in Hollywood history. Cowboys? Gene Autry, Roy Rogers, and William "Hopalong Cassidy" Boyd are spinning in their graves. How about making a film about heterosexual fashion designers?

Crash: Confirming all our worst stereotypes about one another.

Good Night, and Good Luck: Perpetuating the myth that looking for communists and their influence in government and Hollywood was a "witch hunt." These "witches" existed in America, and a world-wide communist conspiracy existed. Joe got carried away and deserved to be shut down, but communist influence in America was nipped in the bud because of his efforts. Ed Murrow did a lot more for America than stand up to Senator Joe McCarthy.

Munich: A deserving film that will be overlooked in the rush to have a politically correct winner.

Capote: Best actor winner here, but only because the title character was such an incredible character, who made a life-altering decision to write about the murder of the Clutter family and became attached to Perry Smith, one of the killers.

sorry to threadjack but I bet quite a few cowboy hats got put into closets after Brokeback was released.
I don't get to see many adult movies these days but I thought BBM was good, not great, certainly not worthy of the hype.

Crash is the only one I've seen. It had some great performances...I thought it was good, not great. BBM my wife and daughter saw and came away disappointed. They felt it hadn't lived up to the hype.

Of the 16 movies listed in this thread's opening post, I've seen only 5 so far, so I can't comment on most of the "big" categories. However, I do want to say how wonderful Amy Adams was in Junebug.

I had never before seen Amy Adams (or any of her excellent castmates in this well-kept secret of a movie). She plays an uncomplicated but exceedingly sweet, ebullient, loving, and life-affirming young woman in the final days of her first pregnancy. It's a supporting role (the movie is primarily a coming-home story about her character's brother-in-law and his new wife), but she lights up every scene she's in. Her face is remarkable for how quickly it can reflect a variety of emotions, usually in rapid succession, as they wash over her (the character has no ability to mask her feelings whatsoever!). An excellent creation of a very endearing character.

I saw Junebug on DVD, and one of the extra features is footage of her audition. You can see how she won the part. Also, in another DVD extra, Amy and Embeth Davidtz (the British actress who is great as the new sister-in-law) give running commentary on the movie; it's very interesting to hear the actresses chat with each other as they watch the film.

Junebug has some content and language strong enough to get it an R rating, but really the film promotes family values (IMO). Good video rental, if you're old enough.

Some family-friendly movies that got nominations, that I saw and can recommend:

Documentary: March of the Penguins. Amazing what these creatures go through to raise their young! Amazing photography under severe conditions. Narrated by Morgan Freeman... great voice (great actor, too).

Art Direction: Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. Very nice film to look at, in addition to its other merits. Good special effects, too... not just for the magic stuff, but also for the landscapes, long-shot views of Hogwart's, the stadium for the tournament.

Animated Feature: Wallace & Gromit in The Curse of the Were-Rabbit. Clay-mation. I've seen and loved all the W&G stuff. Cracking toast, Gromit!

A few more ramblings before tomorrow (Sunday) evening's awards show.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Would love to see Amy Adams (Junebug) win, but she's a newbie and has tough competition.

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Thinking it may go to Jake Gyllenhaal (Brokeback Mountain), but didn't see George Clooney (Syriana) or William Hurt (A History of Violence).

ACTRESS: Didn't see Felicity Huffman (Transamerica) or Charlize Theron (North Country). To me, Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line) was the best of the rest, but she's had light roles in the past. Possibly a drawback when going up against the renowned Judi Dench (Mrs. Henderson Presents)?

ACTOR: Didn't see Philip Seymour Hoffman (Capote) but apparently it was a great performance. However, I heard this interesting question raised: Is it acting, or just an excellent impersonation? Do you give the Oscar to impersonators? If not, then maybe Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain).

DIRECTOR: I didn't like Crash, but lots of people did, and it was stylishly shot. So maybe an Oscar for Paul Haggis.

PICTURE: I'm hoping for Munich to win, but who knows?

Last-minute thoughts or predictions, anyone?

Philip Seymour Hoffman certainly did more than "impersonate" Truman Capote, providing emotional depth to a character that would have been easy to trivialize with his quirky qualities, but Hoffman gave us a real person, albeit not an entirely appealing one. Rich Little is--or was--an impersonator; Philip Seymour Hoffman is an actor.

I do think that Heath Ledger's performance was an incredible acting accomplishment though, and I would find it difficult to choose which was the more convincing performance.

I'd be very surprised if Brokeback Mountain didn't collect most of the awards for which it's nominated.

I was surprised to find out that Reese Witherspoon did all her own singing as June Carter Cash! Now, that's impressive!

Unsurprisingly, v-man, you were right on the mark with your call for Best Actor. That win, along with Reese Witherspoon's Best Actress win for her portrayal of a real person, pretty much settles the "impersonating vs. acting" question: no points off for portraying an already-established (by the real person) character. In fact, it occurs to me that an actor portraying a well-known figure has the additional challenge of realistically recreating the person. Less room to hide.

Honestly, I stopped caring after Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan. Travesty!

As for Brokeback Mountain, I haven't seen it and have no desire to. Lets be honest, most folks find man/man love repulsive whether we are OK with homosexuality or not. I personally believe a lot of people, men especially, saw the movie out of guilt. They felt bad they have told gay jokes or looked down on gays, decided to go see the movie to be politically correct and pretended the love scenes didn't bother them. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

Anyway, the Oscars gained a tiny bit of respect back by not buying the hype and appeasing the politically correct crowd and giving the Best Picture award to a more deserving movie by all accounts.

But remember, I don't care.