I'm just curious what forum members think about this topic. I have some thoughts and I want to see if anyone sees it similarly, totally the opposite, etc.
It seems right now, of course, that it's McCain and Rudy who are going to be the powerhouses this time around, but I quite honestly feel neither of them has a shot. The religious right doesn't like McCain whatsoever, and that generally (actually almost always) spells doom for a GOP candidate in the primary. Heck, they've torpedoed Sen. McCain before.
On the other hand there's Rudy. He's a sentimental choice right now, but I don't think a lot of people know as much about him as they think they might. Being a New Yorker, I know a thing or two about him. He's pro-choice, pro-gun control, and a man without a clean closet skeleton-wise (2 ex-wives for starters). Anyway, I think the pro-choice thing alone is enough to sink him, and I don't think Rudy's the type to shift positions just to curry favor.
So I guess, interestingly, I think the two frontrunners at this point have major, major hurdles, and I would be quite surprised if either of them were left standing at the end of the day. I think Rudy could win a general election, but I don't think he ever gets there. I think McCain could have won in 2000 had he gotten there - easier than President Bush did - but he's lost a lot of support from independents, who are/have been very much his support base.
I think this race for the GOP nomination in '08 is wide open, and I don't think Rudy or Sen. McCain even get close to winning it (and I haven't the slightest idea who will).
I agree about Guliani. I don't think his NY-ish act will travel well. But McCain has built up so much residual good will over the years by being a guy who is perceived as having great integrity and not owned by special interests... a guy who truly stands up for what he believes in, I think it may carry the day for him. If it does, I also think that the Dems are in trouble. He's so well known as well as his history and folks just like him... and that is so important, especially in presidential politics. I just don't think that there are many who follow policy that closely to realize that he is all over the map from issue to issue and doesn't really fit in with any particular group. And for many who are aware of this, it is one of the things that they respect about him. I think he's the odd-on, myself. Who's going to beat him ?
So hard to tell at this point, IMO. Difficult to be a wire-to-wire leader, I would think. So many opportunities for mis-steps between now and the crucial primaries. Also, I think much will depend on where a candidate stands on Iraq and how things will go in Iraq.
An interesting thing in both parties is that candidates seem to need to at least do OK with the wings of their parties, in order to get the nomination. Then, in the general election, they have to move toward the center.
Another factor (again, both parties) is: Who can raise the most money, develop the best political network (for campaigning), and sign on the best talent. Things are happening right now that we can't see that will turn out to be major determinants in who gets the nomination.
As always, I hope for two nominees I can respect. People with different views, necessarily, but good, thoughtful, intelligent people with some personal depth, so that I can vote FOR someone and not AGAINST someone. I do try to give each side a fair hearing.
An interesting thing in both parties is that candidates seem to need to at least do OK with the wings of their parties, in order to get the nomination. Then, in the general election, they have to move toward the center.
I was thinking about that today, too, and you're absolutely right.
A Guliani/McCain ticket would be the Republicans only chance to see the White House any time soon I believe. I get the feeling that the American public have had their fill of Republicans and that they would rather vote for their left sock than vote another Republican into office. Now, I consider myself an Independent/Republican, and I did vote for Bush twice, but I think that he's pretty much cost the Republicans any chance that they might've had for a White House in '08. We'll see.
An interesting thing in both parties is that candidates seem to need to at least do OK with the wings of their parties, in order to get the nomination. Then, in the general election, they have to move toward the center.
This is the key for McCain, IMO. He has a few postions that are generally deal-breakers for the factions (Read : $$ contributions $$) that back GOP candidates. It will be interesting to see how that all plays out. Our status in Iraq in summer 2008 will likely be very different than it is now and, depending upon how that goes, may still be far and away issue #1.
February 1st, 2007, 11:09 AM
Linear Mode
Similar Threads
