i think it will be a top player. it's really rare for an underdog to come out and win the us open like ben curtis did in the british open last year. after this weeks performance, i think tiger will contend but i'm going with els as my favorite for back to back wins.
Corey Pavin and Raymond Floyd are the last two US Open champions on Shinnecock Hills. Neither was a particularly long hitter, but they were able to keep the ball in play and to work the ball in the wind. Pavin was a notoriously low ball hitter for most of his career.
If the wind is a factor--and it should be--look for the winner to be someone who can control the ball and/or keep it "under" the wind and putt like a demon for four consecutive days. Ernie Els and Tiger are good bets always, but I wouldn't be surprised to find someone like Justin Leonard or Scott Verplank (Texas-type wind players) near the top if they can find their putters for the week. I also wouldn't count out a player like Kenny Perry.
I have to go with Ernie Els. He has been playing great all year and is the 94 and 97 champ, be should be considered. With the way Freddie played last week, wouldn't that be something if he won?
I think Freddie would be a very popular champion, and I would certainly be cheering him on. He has his personal life together now, and he has always had the physical tools to win any tournament he entered. Does he have a major left in him? We'll see.
Of the "Top Ten" guys, I'd say these people have the best chance (in this order): Ernie, Goosen, and Harrington. For some reason, I don't see Tiger winning it. I'm not a Tiger-hater (in fact, I love watching a legend being fashioned); I just wonder if his game is all the way back.
Of the others: Verplank's getting mentioned a lot (Texas-type wind player, as Valeogut pointed out); have to count him in (but I think that Justin Leonard's ship has sailed; would like to hear him give another classy victory speech, though). Wouldn't be surprised to see Chad Campbell and/or DiMarco contend.
OK, so here's my win-place-show pick: Els, Harrington, Verplank.
But then again, I picked Smarty Jones to win the Belmont Stakes.
June 6th, 2004, 10:32 AM
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