I really like Phil and wouldn't be upset if he won, but I don't think that his high ball flight will serve him well in the winds out there on the end of Long Island. That said, if he can keep his ball in the fairway and give his short game a chance, he could do very well.
I think Phil will be having too much fun, if that makes sense, to win this one this year. Now that the monkey is off his back, he will pick up a couple more majors, but I don't think it will be this weekend.
He has as good a chance as anyone. But I think he would have to be patient, keep his driver in the bag most holes, and play conservative. These are things he's had trouble with in the past, but are also what makes him so popular with the gallery - his willingness "to go for it" on almost every shot. His caddy should keep telling him every hole "PAR IS GOOD."
I think Els and Vijay have a great shot, but wouldn't be surprised at an upset by someone who who can hit the ball low and straight, not necessarily long - a Justin Leonard, and yes Corey Pavin type golfer.
Ernie has the game to cruise around Shinnecock, watch for him and the guys who play links golf. Paul Lawrie described the course like being back home in Scotland.
I definitely think Ernie has a great shot having won the U.S. Open twice but also the British Open. With all of his international experience, he's my favorite to win this week.
I'm gonna go with Tiger. Going out on a limb, huh? He hit a lot more fairways this last tournament and with two weeks to work on his game, that's a lot of time to iron out the kinks in his game.