It all depends on which player they choose for the contest. I think if they choose a single digit handicapper with a decent short game and can handle pressure, that type of player can break 100. My assumption would be that they have a single digit handicap, their total game does not need a lot of work. The key will be to stay within themselves and not "toss shots" trying to be a hero.
My guess will be that they will provide players that have a chance, but just miss 100 due to the cameras. 104 is my guess.
On any reasonable day a 10 marker who possesses very good course management skills and has top short game should be able to pay with 28 shots over par. I guess on the day weather will be a major factor but given fair conditions I believe a score under 100 is definately on. As stated I am only talking of a golfer who plays within himself and knows how to hole out.
Any short and straight senior with a good short game and putts welll, will find that has two extra shots to get on the green. Should be able to two putt and score. Should be able to get get on the green and close to the hole on half the holes in one over regulation. He should shoot parr plus 18 plus nine. and score 97, If he can handle the pressure.
What about some of those ten handicappers from Oakmont Country Club. They usually score around 85 on their home course.
I don't think the one person who is picked will do it, but there are a lot of 10 handicappers at Oakmont, and a lot of sandbagging hustlers around the country that could do it for the right amount of $$$$. But none of them will be chosen.
166... lol. I went to torrey pines two years ago I believe with my dad and caddied for him. and he shot pretty good due to the fact that they were growing the rough ( 9 inches) because the buick was close. actually probably 120...
Most normal 10 handicappers, I know score around 85. That is only 15 strokes from 100. With the added distance and rough and disgusting pin placements, I don't think a normal player has a chance of holding their score below 100. The extra shots caused by the extra distance, the three and four and five putts on holes next to slopes, the five inch rough alone should add a lot of strokes. All this added to the pressure of the camers. Besides if a normal guy could shoot 85 it would make the pro's look like fools!
The oakmont CC ten handicappers are the only ones I feel could shoot under 100.
I tend to agree with you for one reason, DISTANCE. Most players at all good clubs tend to not play the tips. I'm a 1.5 and I play the back tee probably 85% of the time and I can tell you my scores are 4 to 8 strokes higher from the tips than when my mens club plays their events from the next tee up. The difference is 7200 yards from the tips and 6600 from the next set of tees. About 4 years ago I played Torrey Pines from the tips with no pressure other than never seeing the layout before and shot a 78. Now Torrey Pines was about 7200 yards at sea level at the time and is now I believe around 7600, big difference. Last year I played down in palm desert called Silver Rock. 7600 yards with 5 or 6 par 4's over 475 yards with one par 4 at 530 with a small landing area. You could stand there with a small bucket and not get one in play. I play with alot of very good players and I believe we could break 100, but that would depend if they have been playing plus 7200 yard courses and are used to being stretch out and have confidence hitting greens from 185 to 225 out. My guess is that the person that gets picked to play will not have a chance(better press).
I played the U.S. Open course at Torrey Pines a few months ago, and they had just began growing out the rough. It was still killer and I can't imagine how bad it will be during the Open. I shot 96 and played decent and I'm about a 6-7 handicap. The most important thing (besides length) to break 100 will be keeping it out of the rough and putting well. The greens were ridiculously fast and very hard to read and hilly when I played them and that wasn't even at the time of the Open.